Did the new paywall make more money, or just more trials?
Enter your paywall test numbers and get the answer in revenue per view, with the odds that it's real. Free, no sign-up, and nothing you type leaves your browser.
Ship Yearly plan first
Yearly plan first has a 96% chance of earning the most per view. If it is not the best, you would lose about $0.0011 per view on average.
- Current paywall converts more people, but Yearly plan first earns more per view. Buyers are choosing different plans, so judge the test on revenue, not conversion.
| Variant | Revenue per view | Chance it earns most | Conversion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current paywall | $0.613Control$0.524 to $0.717 | 4% | 3.60%303 of 8,420 |
| Yearly plan first | $0.749+21.8% vs control$0.643 to $0.869 | 96% | 2.99%251 of 8,388 |
How much more each variant earns per view
Each bar is a range of possible lifts, sized by how often it came up in 20,000 simulations. Bars left of 0% mean the variant earns less than Current paywall.
Revenue uses prices after the 15% store fee. Bayesian model with a flat prior on conversion. Frequentist checks for reference: Yearly plan first: p = 0.074 on revenue, 0.028 on conversion. Traffic split check passed (p = 0.805). How this works
Why revenue per view and not conversion
Paywall tests usually change which plan people pick, not just whether they buy. Put the yearly plan first and fewer people may subscribe, but each of them pays seven times more up front. A calculator that only compares conversion rates would call that a loss.
This one counts purchases per plan, applies the store fee, and compares what each variant actually earns per person who saw it. The example above is that exact case: the current paywall converts better and still earns less. How the math works
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