You can lose up to 23.1% of buyers before $12.99 earns less
Conversion can fall from 4.00% to 3.08% of paywall views before revenue over 12 months drops below today.
Revenue at $12.99 if buyers change
| Buyers | Conversion | Per 1,000 views | vs today |
|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 4.00% | $1,452 | +30.0% |
| -5% | 3.80% | $1,379 | +23.5% |
| -10% | 3.60% | $1,307 | +17.0% |
| -15% | 3.40% | $1,234 | +10.5% |
| -20% | 3.20% | $1,161 | +4.0% |
| -23.1% (break-even) | 3.08% | $1,117 | 0.0% |
| -25% | 3.00% | $1,089 | -2.5% |
| -30% | 2.80% | $1,016 | -9.0% |
Today: $1,117 per 1,000 paywall views over 12 months, after the store fee. Break-even is the row where revenue matches today.
Testing the new price
A 50/50 price test needs about 6,277 paywall views per price, about 11 days at 1,200 views a day to tell a change in buyers as large as the break-even (-23.1%) from no change, at 95% confidence and 80% power. Smaller changes take longer to see, so a test this size can confirm a big loss of buyers but not prove a small one.
Assumes the same refund rate at both prices and a constant renewal rate. Covers new buyers only, not existing subscribers moved to the new price. How this works